Boston, Massachusetts – A new study led by the Boston University School of Public Health and the University of Pennsylvania reveals groundbreaking data suggesting that many excess deaths from chronic illnesses and other natural causes were actually uncounted COVID-19 deaths. The study challenges previous claims that attributed these deaths to factors such as COVID-19 vaccinations and shelter-in-place policies.
Official federal counts in the United States indicate that nearly 1,170,000 people have died from COVID-19. However, various excess mortality studies suggest that these figures may be significantly underestimated. While excess mortality estimates deaths that would not have occurred under normal circumstances, there has been limited evidence to determine if the SARS-CoV-2 virus was a contributing factor to these additional deaths.
Published in the journal PNAS, the study compared reported COVID-19 deaths to excess deaths from non-COVID natural causes such as chronic illnesses and diseases. It found that the increase in non-COVID excess deaths coincided with or preceded the rise in reported COVID-19 deaths in most US counties.
Dr. Andrew Stokes, the corresponding author of the study and an associate professor of global health at BUSPH, emphasized that the study’s findings indicate a significant number of uncounted COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic, which persisted beyond the initial phase. The temporal correlation between reported COVID-19 deaths and excess non-COVID natural cause deaths sheds light on the underlying causes of these deaths.
Lead author Eugenio Paglino, a Ph.D. student at UPenn, highlighted that the study’s analysis disproved claims that linked mortality during the pandemic to factors like COVID-19 vaccinations or shelter-in-place policies. The researchers used novel statistical methods to analyze monthly data on natural-cause deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths in over 3,000 counties from March 2020 to August 2022.
The disparities in death patterns across different regions were attributed to variations in state policies, COVID death protocols, and potential political biases. The researchers hope that the study’s findings will prompt further investigations using hospitalization data and local insights to distinguish uncounted COVID-19 deaths from other causes.
The study underscores the importance of accurate death reporting during public health crises, not only for understanding the disease but also for informing effective response strategies. Improved death investigation and certification processes are crucial for enhancing national surveillance data and modeling in future pandemics.